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April 16, 2008

EPT Monte Carlo: The Big Pair Limp Question

by Otis

Live from a fifteen minute break at the EPT Grand Final in Monte Carlo, a hand that has caused significant debate, specifically between Lee Jones and this humble correspondent. Your opinion--while, like mine, largely insignificant--is valued.

Quick background: Antonio "The Magician" Esfandiari has been running over the tournament for two days. With the chip average just over 600,000, he has 1.6 million or so. He's been moved to the TV table with a rather loose-aggressive Dane named Stig Top-Rasmussen. Rasmussen has about 700,000 chips. Blinds are at 5,000/10,000/1,000. Twenty-one players are still left in the event. First place pays more than €2 million.

The hand (from the PokerStars Blog): Antonio limped UTG to see the button and small blind limp as well. Stig, in the big blind, thought about the situation for a bit and then pushed his 700k chips across the line. Almost without hesitation, Antonio called. The others ran for cover before Antonio turned over QQ. Stig somewhat sheepishly showed his AT. When the smoke cleared, the board read 7 3 4 A J and Stig was stacking about 1.5 million in chips.

You choose: I'm still thinking about the hand, but I have 90% definite opinion. Lee Jones differs. Tell me what you think and why.

A) Antonio, based on his chip position, was wrong to limp with queens

B) Antonio, based on his chip position, was right to limp with queens.

I'd also, just for entertainment value, be interested to hear your opinion on Stig's play.

| Poker Theory , | Tournament Action
Comments

First time caller, long time listener...

Good to know that you'll have the definitive, expert opinion right out of the chute. I think Antonio played this brilliantly. He's a mad Aggro player, he has an aggressive player in one of the blinds who will pounce on the limp. I'm assuming that he's limped before and it isn't some weirdo thing. Stig's play is obviously moronic in so many ways. Possibly this is because he's been reraised alot, although I doubt it. In fact, Stig's play is one of those dumb things I would do, it seems.

Posted by: cc at April 16, 2008 11:50 AM

As you stated, the Dane was loose-aggressive. Seems Antonio's limping was to designed to take advantage of this.

Another case of correct decision, bad result, I think.

Posted by: Human Head at April 16, 2008 12:37 PM

Looks like Antonio wanted to play for a stack and not just pick up the blinds. If that's the case, he played it perfectly.

The quality of Stig's play is based on two factors:

1) If the table was tight and limping signified weakness, then his play was a smart one.

2) If he had been playing tight recently, his play is also a good one.

From the way things happened, Stig screwed up. Antonio was hoping someone would raise or push and from the look of it, he was targeting Stig.

I wouldn't have pushed there since my stack is above average and losing some chips wouldn't hurt me that much. A big raise would be called for if I wanted to steal the pot and 70K is 10% of my stack. That seems to risky there, especially if I'm known as a LAG. I probably would have checked and seen a flop.

Posted by: Pokerwolf at April 16, 2008 12:52 PM

Do you really want to try and trap with Q Q? I agree with Head (yeah you read that right) that is a correct decision, bad outcome, but still, you have queens. This move is most likely coming from a strong A or K. They will have outs and you cannot control what comes off the deck.

Just me and my conservative style of play. Say Antonio did raise. Because Stig is a LAG, isn't he most likely making the same kind of play anyways? Maybe raising forces him to just call and you can make a move on the flop.

Posted by: StB at April 16, 2008 12:55 PM

I think it's a big mistake to limp queens there. I don't really know what table dynamics are going on, but I guess that Antonio must have been raising quite a few hands since he was chip leader. So if he wants to get action he'll find it for sure anyway, while at the same time you get rid of some worse hands that could outdraw you on the flop.

It's also imteresting to see if strategically he should call for half his stack (70 BBs). Being the chip leader he should find not much difficulty in chipping up just by raising in position and taking down orphan pots. When he calls with QQ, he'll be a favorite most of the time, but any hand with an ace is 30-70 and AK would be a coinflip. Should he have folded the hand leaving some +EV in the table in order to keep his stack growing with less variance?

In any case the play from the dane is about as stupid as it gets. A guy limping in EP can be a monster hand many times, and pushing 70 BBs! with AT will only get called by hands that are at least 70% favorite. Usually dumb plays are rewarded though, so maybe he has some insight into this game that the rest of us don't have though...

Posted by: Anguila at April 16, 2008 1:24 PM

I say raise UTG w/QQ. The raise would be to maybe 40K perhaps whatever was standard at the table at the time. The reason this is important is that because the BB can now re-raise his AT to an amount that says to Antonio, I'm sick of you running over the table, let's say 150,160K.

Then, Antonio can push his QQ and Stig can meekly fold his AT, losing less than 25% of his chips. Antonio takes an uncontested pot worth nearly 200K and doesn't show down. Win-win in my book.

PS: The title of my book is Mediocre System.

Posted by: BadBlood at April 16, 2008 1:44 PM

ok my take since you asked: I vote B

Antonio was trying to be tricky and repop a steal.
and got out drawn.

I don't think it is such a bad play since he is clearly looking to win the tourney and not just move up pay positions.

Peace
the Evil Wonka


Posted by: Wwonka at April 16, 2008 2:35 PM

I would normally raise QQ UTG, but depending on how active I have been might limp it as well. I think it would usually depend on the stacks of the blinds and button. I probably limp there 30% of the time. With chip leader stack I can afford to see a flop and play post.

The 700K squeeze shove is a retarded move. Chip leader limps UTG, smells like a trap and he walked right into it. He should have checked.

Antonio's call is an insta. There is no way the BB is making this move with AA/KK. Maybe at worst AK. But even then it would be a mistake.

Unless they are all applying level 8 thinking and he has AA/AK and wants Antonio to think he doesn't.

Crazy Danes!

Posted by: Kajagugu at April 16, 2008 2:36 PM

With that kind of chip lead, it is hard to question any play a pro like Antonio makes.

Limping with QQ UTG is a great play when you get someone behind you to raise. HOWEVER, when that player puts in all his chips before you get a chance to RE-RAISE, you have to be able to jump ship and change your plan. Toss the ladies into the muck and let the pusher feel like he stole some nice blinds. Wait for your AA and then you can make that call.

Additionally, Antonio is a great player and doesn't need to destroy several days work of stacking up with a quick call with QQ preflop. There was plenty of tournament left.

Posted by: Little Willie at April 16, 2008 2:41 PM

It really depends on what Antonio was going for. Since he was obviously willing to call a good-sized all-in, then he was willing to go to the felt. He achieved his goal, so he played it well. I can't imagine his thought was "I hope 3 people limp and I get to see a flop and fold to an ace."

As for Stig, this was just a bad push. Kudos for trying to make a move against the chipleader, but when The Magician limps UTG, you can't think your AT is doing anything better than chasing 3 outs. Plus, 700k risked to win 47k or chase? Yikes.

But personally, I hate limping QQ, especially in EP.

Posted by: Astin at April 16, 2008 2:48 PM

If I'm Antonio, here's how I play it:

I raise UTG with QQ because I want everyone to fold. Chances are, I'm ahead with QQ and that's not good.

If Twig pushes, I call because there's a chance he has AA or KK and then I'm way behind, which is good.

Since he had just AT, I have to hope he either flops the Ace or turns the ace. That way, I can get my Q on the river to suck out and win the pot.

Standard Luckbox strategy that can't be taught, sorry.

Posted by: Luckbox at April 16, 2008 2:55 PM

I've hurriedly typed this out before seeing any other comments. My opinion is certainly not born of any expertise, merely out of "what would I do in this situation..."

If I'm in Esfandiari's place - I don't limp with queens - I'm not clever enough to pull off a limp-re-raise which is what it appears Esfandiari was attempting - limping in the hopes of someone raising.

Given that, I suspect that even if I'd raised UTG and the BB pushed - who has a loose-aggressive rep, I'd be hard pressed not to call with the chance to bust another player and increase my chip count healthily.

Ok - on further thought... Esfandiari may well have been attempting to trap Rassmussen knowing him to be LAG. His trap worked, but he lost the race. So, given the circumstances and how he may have read things pre-flop - Esfandiari was right to limp to attempt the trap.

Rasmussen, being a LAG player, probably thought he could steal the pot then and there with his push.

How'd I do?

Posted by: maudie at April 16, 2008 3:53 PM

For Esfandiari I choose B because it is QQ not KK or AA. It is not a bad play though if he had a good read on the table.

Stig's play was horrible in every way because of his healthy stack. If he was looking to steal, then he could have easily gotten the same result with a largish raise, like Aquila said, 70k or so. Sure, it opens him to a reraise steal, but the chances of that move are remote. It is much more likely that a reraise means exactly what it looks like, a big hand. It's still a pretty big investment in a high risk situation. If you are fearing a call and playing post flop, then you should try solitaire.

Rather, I would limp, betting an A on the flop. Esfandiari likely has a small pair, high suited connectors, or some other mediocre hand and I am ahead at that point. I am somewhat cautious though, because AK or AA is still a possibility. My real fear is an AJ though because many players will limp from early position with that hand, though Esfandiari playing that slow with a big stack is unlikely. In any case, my pot sized bet of about 50k gains me a lot of information on which to decide (saving me 20k from the first option)...again if you don't like post-flop play, try solitaire.

How about that?

Posted by: Cynic at April 16, 2008 4:47 PM

My book Always Check the River states that average to poor tournament players should get their chips all-in pre-flop when ahead. However, poker players with the nickname The Magician tend to be very good players. While Antonio had the chip lead, his stack was not deep enough to trap with QQ against Push Monkeys. If his stack was 3.2 million then it would be a good play. If his stack was 500,000 and he needed to gamble for chips then it would also be a good play. I say standard raise. Stig is still likely to push but there may be dead money in the pot from the button or small blind initial call.

Posted by: Random101 at April 16, 2008 6:18 PM

He caught the lunker with the stink bait.

Bad result.

Stig's play however is a little pushmonkey-ish for having 70BBs behind since he's only getting called by something he's behind (TT,JJ,QQ,KK) or crushed (AJs, AQs, AKo, AKs, AA). Sure he might get AJ, AQ, TT, and JJ to fold but to the gain of 2.5BBs versus his whole stack?

Not so smart.

But... if he was setting up a future play with Aces like this and that was his thought line, I like it.

Posted by: Drizztdj at April 17, 2008 8:43 AM

I like the play with K-K or A-A but not Queens. That's a harder hand to be completely free of worry. I understand Antonio's reasoning and think he played it well, but it's not somehting I would do most of the time. I don't even know if I like this play there. CALLING is really something I hate to do.
I like what Blood said about it.

Posted by: pokerpeaker at April 17, 2008 11:19 AM

My view of the hand is as follows: Antonio looks like he was looking to set up Mr LAG, and got the desired result. The thing he did wrong was lose the hand. In my view, one should avoid losing hands, especially big ones.

P.S. My book is going to be called "Obvious System".

Posted by: Garthmeister J. at April 17, 2008 2:16 PM
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