1. It started with a text message this morning from BG:

"$21 to win on BOB BLACK JACK, $10 to win on MONBA"

With a brother named Bob, and the obvious gambling reference, BG would be crazy NOT to bet on Bob Black Jack. That's where his heart is. That means his head must be with Monba. (Full disclosure: This is only a guess at BG's motive for that pick, especially since on Friday, BG told me he wasn't actually going to handicap the card.)

2. I read off the names of all 20 horses to Lady Luck, and she selected Monba.

3. Armed with this knowledge, I did a little handicapping of the field. Here's what I figured out:

Colonel John should go off as the favorite and has a great shot at winning this race. Coming out of the 10th post, he's in much better shape than Big Brown. And in the Santa Anita Derby one month ago, he showed the 1 1/4m distance likely won't faze him. That said, I won't bet the favorite in a 20-horse Derby field.

Big Brown should go off as the second favorite. He also has a shot at winning this race, but coming out of the 20th post will be more than he can overcome. He'll expend a lot of energy to get himself closer to the rail and the four horses inside of him are too good to allow him that room. This is the best horse in the field, but he won't win.

Pyro should go off as the third favorite. It wouldn't shock me to see him win. He'll leave the gate just inside of Colonel John. The Blue Grass Stakes was a disaster for Pyro (he finished 10th) but I think the Louisiana Derby is probably a better indication of what he may bring on this day. However, he won't win.

A half-dozen other horses will be real contenders: Wood Memorial-winner Tale of Ekati, Florida Deby-runner up Smooth Air, Santa Anita Derby-runner up Bob Black Jack (who should be the early speed), Blue Grass Stakes-runner up Cowboy Cal, Illinois Derby-winner Recapturetheglory, and Arkansas Derby-winner Gayego (beware of injury whispers on this horse).

All those horses are certainly capable making this a very difficult field to break down. It doesn't take much skill, however, to list 10 horses that could win a race. What you want is the winner. And that winner will be Monba.

I anticipate Monba getting out good from the 14th post, following Bob Black Jack who may be the early leader. Look for Monba to settle in a few off the rail by the first turn. He'll be in trouble if he lets those big horses outside of him get a jump on him, but I think he'll be fine.

By the stretch, Pyro will be passing Bob Black Jack, Big Brown will be rallying from well back on the outside, Colonel John will begin his move from the middle of the pack, but Monba will be best positioned to get the win. He'll duel with Pyro, before winning by a length, Colonel John will get up for third, Big Brown fourth and Bob Black Jack fifth.

There it is. The Blue Grass Stakes winner will make it happen again.

And, since you asked, Big Brown will take the Preakness and Colonel John (after skipping the Preakness) will take the Belmont.

Place your bets!

UPDATE:

My bets are now placed.

$10 Win #14 Monba
$10 Win #9 Pyro
$7 Win #2 Tale of Ekati
$5 Win #13 Bob Blackjack
$2 Ex #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro
$2 Ex Box #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$2 Tri #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro w/ #10 Colonel John
$1 Tri #14 Monba, #9 Pyro w/ #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown, #13 Bob Black Jack
$2 Tri Box #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$1 Super #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown
$1 Super #14 Monba, #9 Pyro w/ #14 Monba, #9 Pyro, #10 Colonel John, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #13 Bob Blackjack, #20 Big Brown w/ #10 Colonel John, #13 Bob Blackjack, #20 Big Brown
$1 High Five #14 Monba w/ #9 Pyro w/ #10 Colonel John w/ #20 Big Brown w/ #13 Bob Blackjack

That's $96 dollars in bets. I planned to spend $100, but lost a few bucks on the 9th race (Oneida did pick the winner by name, however, or I would have lost even more!). Good luck at the windows!

FIRST THE BACKGROUND

There are a number of places where a person who was so inclined might place a wager on a Presidential contest.

The best known is Intrade, based in Ireland.

Here are the prices for the Democratic Nomination as of 1:50PM Tuesday:

Obama 81.3 (down .2)
Clinton 16.1 (up 1.1)

Those are the price of a "share" that pays $100 if correct. They are traded daily... bought and sold among users like commodities on the US Exchange.

There are other sites that offer similar predictions in similar ways, but very few that allow actual wagers. It is not LEGAL to bet on this in the US.

For more lines check the Rassmussen Futures, NewsFutures, or the Iowa Electronic Markets

THE GAME

As I write this I'm bored out of my mind waiting for the polls to close in PA. I've made my "prediction" using the best information I can get and now I'm waiting for the die to fall.

But speaking of information, check this out:

These polls were all done in the past few days. First column is the pollster, second is the dates of the survey, third is the sample size (LV = likely voters) and finally the numbers:

Those numbers are pretty much useless.

Here are the Intrade lines:

Clinton 90.7
Obama 09.1

Now I'm not saying those are damn good 10-1 odds for Obama but it ain't a bad bet.

MY GUESS

I'm guessing Clinton wins by 10.

That said, I'd take the 10-1 and root like hell for Obama. As if you weren't anyway.

1) Identify the card. Not every Pick 6 is made to be won. Each year, the Breeder's Cup features the Ultra Pick 6. In 2006, no one hit it. The year before, just one ticket that paid almost $3 million. It's a tough card. When BG and I played it last year, it was probably the worst results we'd ever had on a Pick 6 partnership.

It's important to identify a card you feel comfortable handicapping. Sometimes those Grade 1 Stakes are a little trickier, and a card full of Grade 1's might not be right for you. Pick a track you like and a track with which you have some experience.

2) Identify the carryover. A carryover in the Pick 6 is equivalent to an overlay in a tournament. It's money that's added to the pot by someone other than the bettors. That's always a good thing. On that one Pick 6 back in September, there was a whopping $245,000 carryover. When BG and I see something like that, we mobilize.

3) Identify your budget. It's just like your bankroll. You won't sit down at a $5/$10 NL table with $300. Don't plan on betting 4 horses per race with $300. There's simple math here. If you pick 3 horses per race, that's 3x3x3x3x3x3 mutiplied by $2. You better have $1458 for those 18 horses in that case. Mix is up a little, say 4x1x5x5x1x2, muliplied by $2, and you're spending just $400 for those 18 horses. Pick a budget and find a combination that fits.

4) Throw out the losers. Tossing horses is important. It makes it a lot easier to narrow down your choices. In every race, there are at least a handful of horses who just don't belong. I generally work my way through the card and eliminate at least half the horses from any consideration.

5) Find the "singles." Want to keep your budget down? Find at least one race in which you feel like there's a sure thing. Every "single" you find will significantly bring down your costs. Of course, it's scary going into a race with only one horse that will keep you alive, but most people don't have thousands of dollars to spend on a Pick 6 ticket.

6) Identify a few long shots. You'll rarely ever find a Pick 6 ticket full of chalk. It just doesn't happen. The difference between you getting that 5 out of 6 consolation ticket and the guy next to you cashing for six figures is finding the right long shots. You can't (and wouldn't want to) load up your ticket with long shots because, well, they're long shots for a reason. But finding one or two that may shock the field could help you to a much bigger pay day when they come in.

7) Narrow the rest. What I've suggested up until now is easy. This step is the hardest. In general, after completing the steps suggested above, you'll be left with as many as three times as many horses as you can afford to put on your ticket. There's no sure-fire way to narrow your choices. If there were, BG and I would be retired on our Pick 6 winnings by now. Instead, it's about smart handicapping and playing your feelings.

8) Get lucky. This one is kinda self-explanatory. Some of us are better at it than others.

Remember, it's not about handicapping each race individually like you would if you were betting a card. This is about picking 6 straight winners. This is about identifying a group of horses that can win. After you've made your choices and placed your bet, cross your fingers and pray to whatever god of luck you believe in.

And speaking of Pick 6's, BG and I are likely getting back on the horse (pun intended). That means we'll be looking for investors. We'll probably do a small one first to get back in rhythm before targeting a nice potential payday. I'll let you know when the time comes.

In his New York Times Op-Ed, L. Jon Wertheim, senior writer at Sports Illustrated, writes that the advent of online poker and popularity of the game overall has played a roll in killing off the role of pool hustler in our underground gambling community.

Of course, Wertheim (as he pimps his new book on the subject), offers more than a few other reasons for the death of the hustler. Everything from gas prices, to the internet pool forums, to a scam artist are to blame for an ages-old gambling icon biting the dust. As I read through it, I occasionally substituted the word "poker" for "pool" and was bemused at how how many correlations I found. I don't have to point them out. If you read here, you already know what I mean.

Regardless, it makes for an interesting read, if you're into that kind of thing.

Oh, and if makes anny difference, if you happen to see me in Vegas next week, don't bother asking if I want to play pool. It won't turn out well for anybody.

I slipped in the door and worked my way into the crowd. It was an eclectic bunch--women, men, old, young, wealthy, poor. There was a line. I didn't want to wait, but my jones was too strong.

When it was my turn, I stepped up and nodded to the familiar face.

"How much?" he asked, tired, ready to go home. He needed the adrenaline we all sought.

"Ten," I said and handed him my bills.

The transaction took less than thirty seconds. I slipped my purchase in my pocket and made for my car as fast as I could. I knew how it would end. In just a few hours, I'd be wanting more, my ten turned worthless inside of a few lousy ticks of the clock.

I am running so bad at Powerball, it makes me sick.

Don't get me wrong, I know I can't win every time. I know I can't even win every week. And, I know it's a game with a lot of variance. I mean, one week you're winning the thing and you feel on top of the world. The next week, you can't win the thing to save your life. The swings can be insane. It's hard to shake the winning feeling after you win $180 million. That's why it's so easy to put money in time and again when you suspect you might be behind.

I've studied, too. I mean, I've considered there might be something wrong with my game. I labored over Super:System:Powerball. I have lucubrated over the numbers. I think I'm on top of it. I think there is a pretty decent chance that I have just as good of odds to win as anybody else in the country. And yet, week after week (espcecially recently) I walk away a loser. This weekend, some weekend warrior from Oregon took it down. It fucking kills me to see these jokers come in and think they own the entire world just because they can win one of these things. Come see me after you go a year without winning one, boys. Then we'll talk about how good you are.

But, I know, man. I know I just gotta keep plugging away. My time will come. I mean, everybody runs bad. Variance happens.

As long as this Powerball thing is legal, I'm going to stick with it. And since it's a game of skill, I suspect I'll be able to play the lottery for a long, long time.

With the explosion of casino poker rooms in America, there's been a huge push to make a little extra money off the game. That means the introduction of table games with an element of poker. First, it may actually attract your average poker player who's either waiting for a table or steaming from a bad session. Second, it will attract those people who are still afraid of sitting down at a real poker table.

You've probably seen one of these games popping up in casinos in Las Vegas. It's called Texas Hold'em Bonus. The other one was new to me, and I've only seen it at this little casino in Kenenr. It's called Flop Poker. As most of you should know, there's no way these games could possibly be a good bet. The question, however, is just how much of an edge does the casino have? Thanks to the Wizard of Odds, I can answer that question for you.

Flop Poker

Here's how it's played: Each player at the table bets the "Ante" and the "Pot." The dealer then deals each player three cards. After looking at your cards you can either fold (and lose your Ante bet) or bet the "Flop" (an equal bet to your Ante). The dealer then reveals the three community cards (for a total of six cards). You use all three of your cards and two of the community cards to make a five cards poker hand.

If you have a pair of Jacks or better, your Ante bet pays 1-1 and your Flop bet pays according to the strength of your hand (Jacks 1-1 up to Royal Flush 1000-1). Finally, the player at the table with the best hand wins the "Pot" (if there are six players who each put $5 in the pot, the player with the best hand wins $30).

Sounds simple, right? But can you win? The short answer is NO. In fact, apart from counting cards in Blackjack, you can't win at any table game. So let's take the bets one at a time.

The "Pot" bet has a zero edge. You put the money in and have an equal chance of winning the "Pot" as every other player. Theoretically, you should win the hand as often as everyone else.

The "Ante" bet is obviously a terrible bet. It pays 1-1 no matter how good of a hand you end up having.

The "Flop" bet is just a bad bet because the payout never approaches the actual probability of the hand hitting.

The Wizard of Odds tells us the house edge on your initial bet is 5.42%. However, because multiple bets are being made, the element of risk is only 2.91%. (The element of risk is defined as the ratio of expected loss to the total amount wagered.) For comparison, the house edge for Roulette is 5.26% (Roulette is one of the worst games in the casino).

Texas Hold'em Bonus

This game is a player vs. dealer game. You start by making an "Ante" bet and an optional "Bonus" bet (the Bonus bet is ALWAYS a sucker bet, in fact, the Wizard of Odds tells us the house edge on that bet is a whopping 8.54%). Each player and the dealer is then dealt two cards. After looking at the cards, you have option of making a "Flop" bet which is twice your "Ante" bet or folding.

Then the dealer lays out the flop. From there, the player can either do nothing or make a "Turn" bet equal to the "Ante." Then a turn card is dealt and the player can again do nothing or make a "River" bet equal to the "Ante." Finally, the river card is dealt and it's time for the showdown, using any 5-card combination from the seven cards available.

If the player beats the dealer, the "Flop," "Turn" and "River" bets pay 1-1. If the player's hand is a straight or better, the "Ante" bet also plays 1-1. If the player and dealer hands are equal, it's a push.

The Wizard of Odds tells us the house edge on the game is 2.037%. However, because the average bet on the hand is 3.81 units, the element of risk is a tiny 0.5335%. That's not so bad. For comparison, the house edge on Pai Gow Poker is 2.73%.

So if you're dying to hit the table games after leaving the poker tables, you may want to give Texas Hold'em Bonus a try. Just don't bet the Bonus!!!

The players:

Luckbox--Luckbox
BG--Tortured Genius
Penny--Shiny Amercican currency equivalent to one cent -- also, G-Rob's friend
Li'l Otis--Two years old

The Methods

While Luckbox and BG use years of NFL sportsbetting knowledge, G-Rob flipped his friend, and Otis gave his two-year-old the team names for each game. Whatever team name his son spit back out was the pick (witnessed by Mrs. Otis).

The payoff

The next time the four players are in the same city, the loser has to buy the winner (or the winner's proxy) a shot of his choice and a companion shot for the loser to drink as well. The winner also gets to poke the loser in the belly and make the Pillsbury Doughboy noise.

THE PICKS

KANSAS CITY +2.5 AT ST.LOUIS

Penny: Rams
Luckbox: Kansas City, to win outright.
BG: Rams
L'il Otis: Chiefs
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

CINCINNATI +3 AT BALTIMORE

Penny: Bengals
Luckbox: Cincinnati, although the Bengals blow.
BG: Bengals
L’il Otis: Ravens
Winner: Baltimore Ravens

HOUSTON +13 AT N.Y. GIANTS

Penny: Houston
Luckbox: New York, not even I'm dumb enough to pick the Texans.
BG: Houston
L’il Otis: Giants
Winner: Houston Texans

TITANS + 9.5 AT JACKSONVILLE

Penny: Jaguars
Luckbox: Titans beat the spread.
BG: Titans
L’il Otis: Jaguars
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

COWBOYS -3 AT REDSKINS

Penny: Redskins
Luckbox: Cowboys
BG: Cowboys
L’il Otis: Redskins
Winner: Washington Redskins

PACKERS +3 AT BILLS

Penny: Packers
Luckbox: Bills
BG: Green Bay
L’il Otis: Packers
Winner: Buffalo Bills

SAINTS -1 at BUCS

Penny: Saints
Luckbox: Saints
BG: Saints
L’il Otis: Bucaneers
Winner: New Orleans Saints

FALCONS -5.5 AT LIONS

Penny: Falcons
Luckbox: Falcons
BG: Falcons
L’il Otis: Lions
Winner: Detroit Lions

DOLPHINS +13.5 AT BEARS

Penny: Dolphins
Luckbox: Bears, by 30 (my lock of the week).
BG: Dolphins
L’il Otis: Bears
Winner: Miami Dolphins

VIKINGS -5.5 AT 49ERS

Penny: San Francisco
Luckbox: Vikings
BG: Vikings
L’il Otis: Vikings
Winner: San Francisco 49ers

BROWNS +12.5 AT CHARGERS

Penny: Chargers
Luckbox: San Diego
BG: Browns
L’il Otis: Browns
Winnner: Cleveland Browns

DENVER +3 AT PITTSBURGH

Penny: Steelers
Luckbox: Denver
BG: Denver
L’il Otis: Steelers
Winner: Denver Broncos

COLTS +3 AT NEW ENGLAND

Penny: Colts
Luckbox: Colts
BG: Colts
L’il Otis: Bears. Steelers. Colts.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts

RAIDERS +7.5 at SEAHAWKS

Penny: Raiders
Luckbox: Seahawks
BG: Raiders
L’il Otis: Seahawks
Winner: Seahawks

RECORDS
Penny: 7-7
Luckbox: 6-8
BG: 6-8
L'il Otis: 8-6

G-Rob: Hello, and good luck this week. Lots of good games. I hope to use skill and insight in picking them all just right.

Coin: Ping.

G-Rob: Well said. Now let's agree on methods. I'll look up the gambling lines on NFL games (as of Saturday morning) then flip you, dear coin, to determine the winner. Heads is the home team... Tails the visitor.

Coin: Ting

G-Rob: Word

G-Rob: Our first game...

KANSAS CITY +2.5 AT ST.LOUIS

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: Good read Mr. Coin. I agree. I like the Rams because they used to have Kurt Warner, and now they don't. Plus, St. Louis is the most dangerous city in America. The Chiefs will be scared.

Luckbox's pick: Kansas City, to win outright.

CINCINNATI +3 AT BALTIMORE

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: WOW! You and I are really on the same page. I like the Bengals because they have that cool "Fear the Tiger" song. Plus, nobody QUOTHS the Raven anymore. Nevermore!

G-Rob: Next up...

Luckbox's pick: Cincinnati, although the Bengals blow.

HOUSTON +13 AT N.Y. GIANTS

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: Damn you're good. By the way, did you know there's a college football coach named Houston Nutt? Nutt? HAW HAW! I'm glad that didn't influence your decision coin. I'd have been distracted.

Luckbox's pick: New York, not even I'm dumb enough to pick the Texans.

TITANS + 9.5 AT JACKSONVILLE

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: Starting to doubt the whole randomness thing Mr. Coin. You're really trying to impress me, aren't you? Don't worry... there's no WAY we could do worse than Luckbox.

Luckbox's pick: Titans beat the spread.

COWBOYS -3 AT REDSKINS

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: I'm checking you... hey... I'm not getting fresh... I want to see your... ouch... OK. You do have tails. I'm just sayin'.

Luckbox's pick: Crygirls, although I hate picking them.

PACKERS +3 AT BILLS

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: Nice. I agree because I'm sick of Bills. Plus, Otis is kind of a Packer.

Luckbox's pick: Buffalo, Favre is on his last leg.

SAINTS -1 at BUCS

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: I'm gonna go with you again coin, but I have my doubts. Athiests have a had time rooting for Saints. At least Pirates exist.

Luckbox's pick: New Orleans... they've got some magic.

FALCONS -5.5 AT LIONS

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: I like this pick because I've interviewed Vick. He was looking for an ear ring on the practice field and I asked him about the grass. I was doing a profile of the guy who cuts it. Plus, my sister in law had a drink with him at a hotel bar. Besides, Ron Mexico is an awesome nickname.

Luckbox's pick: Atlanta, the Lions just aren't very good.

DOLPHINS +13.5 AT BEARS

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: Hmmm, even Luckbox and BG might not make such a silly pick. But, since we're trying to show how useless that analysis is... good pick Mr. Coin.

Luckbox's pick: Bears, by 30 (my lock of the week).

VIKINGS -5.5 AT 49ERS

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: Well said. I think Joe Montana is awesome. You'll have to excuse him, he's upstairs masturbating. (Bonus Points to readers who get that joke.)

Luckbox's pick: Minnesota covers.

BROWNS +12.5 AT CHARGERS

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: This makes me happy because I once won a bunch of money in the Mandalay Bay Sportsbook while singing the Charger fight song with AlCan'tHang. Good Times.

Luckbox's pick: San Diego covers with or without Merriman.

DENVER +3 AT PITTSBURGH

Coin: Heads

G-Rob: I hope you're wrong. I hate Pittsburgh.

Luckbox's pick: Denver wins outright.

COLTS +3 AT NEW ENGLAND

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: I also hate New England. Never met anyone from Boston that wasn't either and asshole or a nerd. Nerds mostly.

Luckbox's pick: Colts win outright.

RAIDERS +7.5 at SEAHAWKS

Coin: Tails

G-Rob: Good Pick again. And remember, dear coin, you're just as likely to succeed as BG and Luckbox. In fact, I'll bet you do better.

Luckbox's pick: Seahawks in a romp.

CJ: Welcome to Week 8. What I've been able to demonstrate thus far is that I'm not very good at this. But I took a week off to study really, really hard, and now I'm ready to roll!!
Boy Genius: No, you took a week off to sit on a cold mountaintop and watch a bunch of hippies dance in circles.
CJ: Okay, that too, but nonetheless. I've been enlightened.

Ari at GB -4

CJ: Let's get started with a really, really easy one. It's the Cardinals at the Packers and the Packers are giving 4.
Boy Genius: This is at Lambeau, which I imagine explains this line. I mean, something's got to give here. Arizona gave Oakland their first win last week, and Green Bay let Joey Harrington (!) throw for 400 and two TDs. Here's the trick though... Green Bay got two of their three turnovers on badly played balls by Miami wideouts, and if Arizona can take care of the ball, they'll be fine. I don't know about a win, but let's say it's close. Green Bay 23 - Arizona 21.
CJ: Well, something has to explain the line. After watching the Packers stumble week after week, perhaps only a visit from the Arizona Cardinals can solve their woes. Here's the thing... the Cardinals are the better team. There's no reason why the lost to the Raiders, and there's no reason why they blew it against the Bears. They don't blow it this week and Leinart has a field day against the Packers terrible D. Arizona 27-Green Bay 20.
Boy Genius: I can see that. Maybe Edge gets a chance to pad his gaudy 2.7 yards per carry stat line too.

Atl at Cin -3.5

Boy Genius: Anyway, the next game on the schedule is one I was hoping against hope I'd get to see on TV this weekend - Atlanta at Cincy. Alas, no dice for me on that one, I get mired in NFC/AFC East football. What do you think about Cincy's chances?
CJ: This should be a hell of a game. The Bengals are favored by 3.5 at home meaning in the oddsmakers minds, this game is a bit of a toss up on a neutral field. Atlanta may have had their coming out last week in that OT win over the Steelers, but their D was exposed. And that's something Palmer, Johnson, and Housyomomma should be able to take advantage of. Bengals win 31-24.
Boy Genius: I love how Chad Johnson's trash talk is back. I was really hoping D'Angelo Hall would bite on the bait, but apparently Mora lobotomized him prior to Thursday's practice. I think this could be a great game, maybe the best one on tomorrow's card. I'll project Atlanta coming out on top though. They're playing good football, and their defensive strength plays well against Cincy's aerial attack. When will Carson and CJ get on track? Maybe next week. Atlanta 27 - Cincy 17.

Bal at NO -1.5

CJ: Speaking of good games. Before this season started, was there any chance the Saints would be favored by a point and a half at home against the Ravens? The Saints? When do they come back down to earth?
Boy Genius: This week, plain and simple. They may be at home and they may be giving points away, but the Ravens defense is well equipped to play sideline-to-sideline with the Saints. I think this week is the one where the Saints end up looking like... well, the Saints again. Baltimore gets one offensive TD and one defensive TD, and that's plenty. Ravens 20 - Saints 16.
CJ: I'd love to disagree with you here, and by the time I'm done typing, I just might. I was in the Dome a few weeks back when the Eagles blew a 4th quarter lead. There was just something about that place. I still can't get the "Who Dat? Who Dat? Who Dat saying they gonna beat dem Saints?" out of my head. Until someone proves to me the Saints aren't blessed at home, I'm not going to pick against them. There, I've decided. Saints 21-Ravens 16.
Boy Genius: Fair enough, you don't want to mess with karma anyway - especially with the week you've had already Luckbox.

Hou at Ten -3

Boy Genius: Moving on, we go from extreme to extreme this week. Games like Atlanta versus Cincy are juxtaposed right up against Houston at Tennessee. Tennessee is giving three, and the line hasn't budged all week. Is it because nobody outside Vince Young's immediate family gives a crap?
CJ: That's gotta be it, otherwise, I'd see this game being at least a 5 point game for the Texans. I think they finally showed last week that there is a bit of promise in that team. Stomping Jacksonville isn't easy, no matter how banged up they are. Plus, they're starting to finally develop a running game. Wali Lundy put up 93 tough yards and should be the guy. Texans roll 24-12.
Boy Genius: I'm thinking this game might be more fun than that. Remember week one's Titans/Jets tilt? Didn't that one end up something like 38-35 Jets? I think we're in for an ol' fashioned AFC South Shootout (TM). Let's assume they trade punches all day long, and if they do who's going to be best equipped to be the last one standing? Tennessee, featuring running back Travis "Earl Campbell Junior" Henry. What's in his Gatorade bottle? Titans 41 - Texans 35.
Boy Genius: Yes, I just said to play the OVER.
CJ: That would certainly be a coming out for Vince. I'm not sure they have the firepower, but I sure believe the Texans could.

Jac at Phi -7.5

CJ: So what about my game of the week, Jacksonville at Philly, the Eagles giving 7.5?
Boy Genius: I turned down an invite to watch this one at the Linc from a luxury box. You heard me. I would bet the network execs came into the season with high hopes for this matchup, but with Leftwich sitting, Mike Peterson hurt, and the Jags not exactly firing on all cylinders, we're not in for a battle here. Philly's dropped two in a row, one emotional game and one fluky kick. Screw it, they come out firing. Philly's favored by 7.5 and they obliterate the line. Eagles 27 - Jags 13.
CJ: Jacksonville is missing 5 key defenders, which I think is a lot more important than losing Leftwich. After all, Garrard was 5-1 as a starter last year. This line opened at around 4 points, so it's clear the betting public thinks the line is a joke. I tend to agree. Eagles have lost all three on the final play of the game. There won't be a chance for that this week. Eagles 38-Jags 17.
Boy Genius: Either way, we both say blowout.

Sea at KC -4.5

Boy Genius: One of the more interesting games on the card today is Seattle at KC, which features a who's who of injured skill players. SENECA WALLACE! BRODIE CROYLE! MAURICE MORRIS! IT'S THE NFL! ON FOX! Line opened up with KC giving six, now it's down to four-and-a-half. Is Brodie Croyle worth a point and a half to the Seahawk secondary?
CJ: Would anyone in their right mind bet this game? I mean, apart from Iowa State fans? The game plan for KC should be simple if Huard is definitely out. Snap. Turn. Handoff. If they do that enough, they'll win this game. I see a low scoring slugfest with the Chiefs winning, but not covering. KC 20-Seattle 17.
Boy Genius: I bet it's not even that much of an offensive showcase. Croyle throws for 168 on 48% passing, no TDs and two picks. Wallace throws for 220, one and one. LJ is the difference, but will be running against ten to fifteen in the box all day. I think Seattle can get this win - Hawks 13 - Chiefs 10.

SF at Chi -16

CJ: And we move to the biggest line of the week, Bears at home giving a whopping 16 to the Niners. Any chance of an upset here?
Boy Genius: HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!11! Bears 44 - Niners 3. Next.
CJ: Have you forgotten the Cardinals already??? The Bears are exposed. It's all over for them! Aw, screw it. Bears 50 - Niners 6.
Boy Genius: Exactly. Which means you should play the Niners on the money line.

TB at NYG -9

Boy Genius: Exactly. Anyway, the Giants get to host the Bucs, who are one bogus roughing the passer call and one ridiculous field goal (sorry) from being 0-7. Giants are at home giving nine. Why do I think that's too light in this battle of the Barber brothers?
CJ: It's true, the Bucs have been rather fortunate, but... it's also clear they are playing much better. They were a playoff team last year, after all. I wasn't sure why they were as bad as they were to start the season. I don't think they have enough to win this game, but I think Gradkowski will keep it close again and the TB D forces Eli to make some mistakes. Giants 23-Bucs 16.
Boy Genius: Hmm... so the Bucs cover in your world? Is this just a feeble attempt to justify last week's Eagles loss? I just don't see it. The Giants are tough and are going to harass Gradkowski all day long. Barber gets 180 combined yards, Plax catches a TD, and the Bucs have a hard time getting anything going. It's all Giants, all day long. NYG 30 - Bucs 17.
CJ: Yes, Bucs cover. And not feebly!

StL at SD -9.5

CJ: Okay, let's move on to another big line. Chargers favored by 9.5 at home against the Rams.
Boy Genius: This line is wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong. Is someone on the Rams offense hurt that I haven't heard about? Is Ryan Fitzpatrick playing? Did Leonard Little get stopped for another DUI? No? Then what the hell is this all about? Rams aren't going to win, but they're not going down by two scores either. The Chargers can and will handle them - SD 27 - STL 23.
CJ: Maybe it's because Shawn Merriman will be off the 'roids this week. I'm puzzled by this line, too. The Rams have been a pretty solid team this year. They can put up points and their D isn't that bad. There's no reason they lose by 10 this week. Chargers 30 - Rams 21.

Ind at Den -3

Boy Genius: That's agreeable. Interestingly enough, we segway into another game where the line doesn't make a great deal of sense to me. Indy visits Denver and Denver's giving two-and-a-half away. Did I miss where Indy's dropped a game this year? I thought they were still undefeated. Help me out.
CJ: Clearly the bettors are giving the Denver defense waaaaaay too much credit. We're talking about a Broncos team that averages 3.467 points a game on offense. Or something like that. If they can't get in the end zone early and often, they won't stop Manning enough. Indy wins 28-10.
Boy Genius: I totally agree. The Broncos did shut down New England (winning 17-7), but their other victories were against KC, Baltimore, Oakland and Cleveland. So let's not get down on our knees and fumble for their zippers yet, alright? This game is either going to be the day the Bronco D gets taken seriously, or the day they state their case for a first round playoff exit. I bet the latter. Indy 24 - Broncos 9.

NYJ at Cle -2

CJ: And we're back to games I care absolutely nothing about. Could there be a more boring matchup than the Jets at the Browns? And on top of that, is there a good reason the Browns are giving two?
Boy Genius: No and no? Is the Browns defense appreciably better than the Lions D that couldn't stop the march of the Penningtons and the rise of Leon Freaking Washington last week?
Boy Genius: No and no.
Boy Genius: So let's just move on and say Jets 24 - Browns 17.
Boy Genius: Yawn
CJ: I won't waste twenty words on this game. Jets win and cover, 20-10.

Pit at Oak +9

Boy Genius: Last of the day games Sunday brings Pittsburgh to Oakland, which sounds like a great game... in 1978. It might be Batch versus Tuiasosopo if we get lucky, and you KNOW I'm praying for that kind of good luck. Jesus, has there been a year with more gawdawful backup QBs playing than this? Steelers giving nine in Oakland, what's your take?
CJ: My take? Maybe, just maybe, the Steelers are better off with Batch in there right now. I don't think Roethlisberger has been right since he was tackled by a Toyota Camry. The Raiders may have beaten the Cards, but they can't put up much of a fight here. Steelers 30-Raiders 12.
Boy Genius: Agreed, I can't see this one unfolding any other way either. Pittsburgh 27 - Oakland 10. Of course, this means you should jump all over the Raiders ("you" meaning everyone but me).
Boy Genius: By the way, here's a partial list of quarterbacks that could be playing this week: Batch, Walter, Croyle, Romo, Gradkowski, Wallace, Garrard
Boy Genius: Sickening

Dal at Car -5

CJ: Speaking of which, Sunday night is the official beginning of the Tony Romo experience. Could the Cowboys look any worse than they did last week?
Boy Genius: Gleefully, I say "YES." They're not that good, they just get the Ed Werder fellatio and the eternal blindness of optimism that befits Dallas "fans" coming into every week. It's emotionally satisfying to everyone else when they're looking for their QB of the Future by week eight, isn't it? Dallas getting five, Carolina at home, there's no way the Boys win and I'm betting no cover. Panthers 24 - NAMBLA's Team 13.
CJ: I hope you're right, I want the Cowboys to find new and interesting ways to suck. At least when my Eagles lose, it's heartbreaking. When the Cowboys lose, it make their fans sick with disgust. I think this week brings much of the same. If the Dallas O-line couldn't block the Giants, imagine what Julius Peppers will do. We might see Bledsoe back in the game yet! Panthers 21-Dallas 14.
Boy Genius: I'd like to see what happens if Parcells has a meltdown on the sideline mid-game. I know we've been waiting to see it from TO, but Billy's near the breaking point too.

NE at Min +1.5

Boy Genius: Anyway, last game of the week is the Pats visiting Minnesota on Monday night. I have some advice for my brother, who complains every week that his bets are always hinged around a single game that he manages to lose... Have this one be your game, that way you're live coming into Monday. Wouldn't that make sense? Minny giving anywhere from one to two-point-five depending on who you ask, so who are you asking?
CJ: This one confuses me, too. I guess being at home is what's got this line close for the Vikings. I just don't see it. The Patriots are rolling and shouldn't have much trouble with the offense of Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor. Give me the Pats as a road dog. New England wins 24-13.
Boy Genius: Hmm... I'm going to play the Vikes outright here. I think they're a jack-of-all-trades squad, just above-average at everything. I think they can take the Pats. Vikes 20 - Pats 17.

Locks of the Week

CJ: That's rather bold, especially once you hear my Lock of the Week (foreshadowing). But we'll start with yours. Where should we put our money?
Boy Genius: Hmm... I don't think the Chargers can cover. Play St. Louis as a road dog. You?
CJ: And I'm taking a road favorite. Give me the Pats all (Monday) night long. Not our usual great team versus terrible team "locks." Should be interesting.

Boy Genius: Absolutely, and as always, fade me immediately. Except Bob - listen when I tell you to key on the Minny game. That's that.
CJ: And good luck to anyone dumb enough to bet our picks, I know I won't!

Buf at Det +1.5

CJ: Okay, welcome back sports gamblers. According to the U.S. Government, we are encouraging you to break the law. But since no one is crazy enough to bet our picks, I think we're fine. Let's get started, Buffao at Detroit, and the Lions are getting a point and a half. Thoughts?
Boy Genius: Hey, we get to lead off with my Lions. Faaaaaan-tastic. I thank insert-deity-of-your-choice here every day that I no longer live in Michigan and don't get weekly NFC North abominations piped into my my home. So the line opened at Lions GIVING one, now they're GETTING one. This Lions team isn't as bad as the Raiders, so even though they're currently winless I'm going to chalk them up for five wins through the rest of their schedule. That starts today. Kitna manages to look efficient, the defense gets a couple of Losman gimmies, and every snowed-in viewer in the greater Buffalo, NY area switches to their Fox affiliate by 330PM. Lions 24 - Bills 17.
CJ: I don't know what to think about Buffalo. I cerrtainly didn't expect then to give up 40 points to the Bears last week. Now they go into Detroit against a winless Lions team. I'm surprised by the volatility of this line as well. I'm also clueless here, but knowing your history on picks, guess that means I should take Buffalo to cover, 20-17.

Car at Bal -3

Boy Genius: Oh, that hurts CJ... That hurts. I'm going to forget you said that and move on to the Wooden Cigar Store Indian line of the week, dedicated to the one the Vegas boys got right from the jump. Baltimore's giving 3 to Carolina in Baltimore, and that one hasn't budged all week. Carolina has yet to find their rhythm and Baltimore got theirs derailed last Monday in Denver. Something's got to give. I think both teams can get after their opponent's QBs, and I think this is going to come down to one of these two teams making one big play each on offense and defense. Frankly, the defensive play could come from either team, but who on the Ravens is going 70 yards for a TD? I'm hesitant to pick a road dog after the couple of bad weeks I've put up here, but Carolina's a more complete team. Panthers 17 - Ravens 13. Panthers cover.
CJ: I've got a similar read on this game. There's been a lot of talk of what Steve McNair has been able to do for the Ravens, but, in reality, he hasn't been very good. He plays the safe QB role very well, but that's not going to win games against good teams (i.e. Denver) unless the Baltimore D scores, too. They won't this week, and the Panthers win 16-10.

Cin at TB +4.5

Boy Genius: We both look into the crystal ball and come up with a slugfest, which means all of you (two or three people - BOB AND DRIZZ) should be playing the OVER. Let's assume we're wrong on that one and move on to Cincy and Tampa. Hasn't this line been all over the place this week? Tampa was giving anywhere from 4.5 to 6.5 to the visiting Bengals, and as of right now you can get either 4.5 or 5.5 depending on where you want to spend your fictional gaming dollar-like credits. Whether you want to play the line at 4.5 or 5.5 take the Bengals. They're rested, they've done a good job of dealing with distractions, and they're capable of getting three picks off the young MAC QB Tampa's trotting out this week. Cincy's just got too many weapons, even for a quality defense like Tampa's to shut down. WHO DEY? 33 - Ball State 17.
CJ: I thought when this line moved from 6.5 to 4.5 that someone was shaving points. There's no reason for the line to move in Tampa's favor. I loved it at 6.5 and love it even more at 4.5. The Bucs haven't been very good this year and their close game against the Saints doesn't mean they're coming around. We'll soon learn that the Saints aren't as good as we think. And that means the Bucs aren't within a TD of the Bengals on any field. Cincy 30-Tampa 12.
Boy Genius: Hmm... I'm giving the Great Gradkowski credit for at least five more points, but we all know how good at this I've been so far, right?

Hou at Dal -13

CJ: You and me both! And I don't know if things will turn around this week. For instance, an easy bet each week should be someone to cover against the Texans. This week it's the Cowboys giving 13. Something tells me the Texans beat that spread. Carr is completing more than 70% of his passes and the Eagles showed how vulnerable the Dallas DB's are. Plus, if the Texans watched the tape, they know up the middle pressure could slow the Cowboys offense. Cowboys win 24-14, but don't cover.
Boy Genius: Shouldn't this be a rivalry game? They're in the same state and all, who do we have to talk to in order to get people to get fired up here? How about TO's position coach? Bet he's fired up. Here's the deal on this one... Houston's offense can keep them closer than 13, and I don't have faith that Bledsoe can find that kick in the stretch to pull away Secretariat-style. Julius Jones might be the biggest no-brainer fantasy football play of the week - and I think he'll get his 150 and 2 - but Bledsoe's predilection for back-breaking fumbles, sacks and INTs aren't going to cost a win, but should cost a cover. Dallas 31 - Houston 20. Line's just too damn wide.

NYG at Atl -3

Boy Genius: Since we're nearing in on your boys, and I know how excited you are to go to N'awlins to see them, I'll intro the next tilt. You know, I actually have NYC Fox to go with Philly's affiliate here, which means I get this game along with the Eagles/Saints tilt we'll talk about in a minute. This is the first time all season I'm going to have a difficult time figuring out what game to watch. It's not that the NFC East is growing on me, just that between Vick and Reggie Bush, I've got potential for some significant excitement in the 1PM hour. Atlanta's a three point favorite at home to New York, and I think that's about right. The Falcons have been nigh unstoppable on the ground, which means that Mikey doesn't have to worry about his semi-worthless WR corps making a play in a key situation. They've got plenty of second-and-shorts to look forward to. I think the strength of the Giants' D - their line - would seemingly be a neutralizing factor, but Vick is out of the pocket so quick that the Giants' stellar DEs are going to be in chase-mode all afternoon. Atlanta's D is also just good enough to not be a liability, and Abraham is scheduled to start. I like the Falcons - barely - 24-20.
CJ: As usual, for the Giants, the game will come down to what Eli Manning can do. Sometimes he looks like Peyton, other times he looks like Health Shuler. When get gets off to slow starts, the Giants become too one-dimensional and they can't effectively use all of their weapons. I think that happens again this week as Atlanta jumps out to an early lead. Should be a lot of points, but the Falcons cover, 30-24.

Phi at NO +3

CJ: Now on to the big game of the week!
Boy Genius: Oy
CJ: I'll be there, rooting on my Eagles. Their giving three points to the Saints in the Superdome. Everyone is saying this is a letdown game for Philly, but that just means they don't know Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb well. The Eagles are the better team, and Jim Johnson will devise a defense to control Reggie Bush. I don't think they'll have trouble covering. Eagles win 30-17.
Boy Genius: I'm sensing an uh-oh type of game for the juggernaut Eagles this week. New Orleans is playing confident, nearly possessed football, and I can't imagine any team wanting to walk into a Superdome filled with emotion this season. I've seen a couple of pundits picking the Saints outright here, but I don't know if I can go that far. But I don't think there's a person outside of the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area who's not rooting for a great, great game here (present company excluded). I think we get one here. Philly has a little letdown off a big emotional win against Dallas, and runs into a confident New Orleans squad. I'm thinking the Eagles win, but it's tight. Philly 28 - N'awlins 27.

Sea at StL +3

Boy Genius: I'm actually looking forward to the other marquee matchup in the NFC this week, which has got to be the most under-the-radar big game so far this season.
Boy Genius: Is Seattle capable of getting back to the big dance? Is St. Louis for real? No and yes. The Rams aren't just going to cover... they're going to win. Seattle's going to be geared up for this one, coming off that Bears embarrassment, but St. Louis is better than they've been the last couple of years - and they've played the Hawks tight year in and out. Bulger is efficient, Steven Jackson is leading the league in rushing, and Leonard Little will get keyed up and notch three sacks tomorrow. St. Louis all the way, winning this one 27-19.
Boy Genius: Oh, and the line is Seattle giving three as a road favorite. Whaddaya think?
CJ: It is an interesting line. Six of the 13 games feature home dogs this week, and two of those home dogs are 4-1 (Saints and Rams). Seattle is not as good a team as they were last year. That much is clear. I suppose it could be losing Hutchinson, I don't know. I do know that Shaun Alexander is out again and that's bad news for the Seahawks. Steven Jackson is healthy, and the dome isn't an easy place to play. I agree, Rams win outright 27-21.
Boy Genius: Whoo hoo! There's a dawg for you, now go lay some money down at Bodog ignore this "spread" they keep talking about and root for your favorite teams, or just a gosh darn well-played game! Praise Jesus!

Ten at Was -10.5

CJ: Ha! That brings us to one of the least interesting games of the week. It's the last place Titans at the last place Redskins. The home team is giving 10.5 points. Can the Redskins really be favored by 10.5? Against anyone other than the Raiders. Last time I checked, the Titans actually put a scare in the Colts... and the Redskins aren't half the team the Colts are. I'm not ready to predict an upset (although the Titans have to win eventually), but the Skins won't cover, winning 17-13.
Boy Genius: Interesting? Yawn, booor-ring. Can we skip the aging and overrated Gibbsians versus the gawdawful shotgun attack of the Toothless Titans? No? Well, I'll make it quick then. I think Tennessee did the right things last week by sneaking Vince into the starting lineup as well as sticking with the shotgun. Indy wasn't prepared - but Washington will be. I smell a blowout here with a significant Vince regression paving the way. Skins 17 - Titans 6. Next.

KC at Pit -6.5

CJ: Next woudl be KC at Pittsburgh. Two teams moving in opposite directions.
Boy Genius: I'm really not sure what to make of this line. Hasn't Huard been playing efficient football? Can you say the same about Roethlisberger? LJ doesn't sit this week after nearly getting his head torn off by a Cardinals DB, but Pittsburgh guard Kendall Simmons leaves the icepack on five extra minutes and is scratched with frostbite? I'm sorry, motorcycle accident + appendix burst + icepack frostbite + Friday the 13th leads me to wonder.
Boy Genius: But the one thing I think about this game is that we're due for a "Dammit, we're the Champs" statement game from the Steelers, and I think that happens Sunday. Pittsburgh puts their foot down in a big way, 27-13.
CJ: Roethlisberger has zero TD's and 7 INT's this year. Hard to believe considering the two year run he's been on. Huard, on the other hand, has 5 TD's and zero INT's in his three starts so far. He's also completing nearly 20% more of his passes. I frankly won't trust picking the Steelers again until Roethlisberger proves he's ready to win, and 6.5 is definitely too many points. Chiefs win outright 24-13.

Mia at NYJ -2

Boy Genius: Wow, that's quite a limb there. I don't see KC having the stones to hang in a big game, but that's just me. Speaking of big games... Wait, how are the Jets favored against anyone but Tennessee, Oakland and maybe Detroit? I don't care if Miami is starting Joey (Fucking) Harrington, how do they give two to anyone?
CJ: Well, it probably has to do with the fact that they're playing a team that failed to get by the Texans. That says an awful lot about the Miami Dolphins. Culpepper was terrible, and Harrington isn't much better. That makes the talented Ronnie Brown a non-factor, and the Miami D can't win if it's on the field all day long. The Jets don't have much trouble here winning 20-3.
Boy Genius: To channel Joe Theismann, when you play a game in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, sometimes it comes down to NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE players who can make NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE plays. And the Dolphins have more players who are NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE PLAYERS. Jesus, these are the JETS we're talking about here. Can we keep our eyes on the ball? How in the hell are they giving points to the Dolphins, even at home? No. Freaking. Way. Dolphins win 20-17. I will not argue this.

SD at SF +9.5

CJ: Fine, I won't argue. I'm just content in knowing there's a lot of money to be won with the Jets now. How about San Diego at San Fran. Can we argue that?
Boy Genius: This line went from 7 to 9.5 this week, and I can't say that I blame bettors for jumping all over the Chargers on this one. Even though they're going on the road, they're well-equipped to neutralize Frank Gore and put the game in Alex Smith's hands. And we all know what that means, right? Should be a long day for Niners fans. I'm all about San Diego here, and feel good betting them at single digits on the line here. Chargers 31 - Niners 20.
CJ: Yeah, this should be one of the easy bets of the week. The opening line was a joke. If Alex Smith has to win the game, it'll get ugly real fast. The only weapon in the air anymore is Antonio Bryant, and he's one loose screw away from being a less-talented T.O. I love the Chargers here 31-14.
Boy Genius: Totally, they're going to harrass Smith into a couple picks, and I'd set the line of Niners overall versus only the scoring of the Charger D/Special Teams at Niners -7, so you know we're not looking at anything but a blowout here.

Oak at Den -14

Boy Genius: So here's a tidbit...
Boy Genius: I wasn't the first person to notice this, so I'm not trying to take credit for being clever, but how does a team averaging 12 points per game over their first four end up giving two touchdowns on the spread? Oh, when Oakland's involved, that's how. The one truth I have yet to see blow up in my face this season is that Oakland cannot cover any spread, no matter how unreasonable it sounds. Denver gets their offensive explosion this week, wins and covers - 15-0.
CJ: There's a good chance this week that more people watch women's bowling on ESPN 2 than watch Sunday Night Football, especially if the South American hottie wears something low cut. Is anyone really going to watch this game beginning to end? I refuse to pick the Raiders to beat a spread against anyone. It's just not going to happen. Denver 20-Oakland 3.

Chi at Ari +11

Boy Genius: There's a hot bowler? Really? So long as they don't call her "The Next Kournikova," I'll let it slide. So we're in agreement on Denver kicking the crap out of Oakland, how about Monday night's game to wrap it up?
CJ: When was the last time both Sunday night and Monday night football featured double-digit favorites? Not a good weekend for prime-time football. It's clear after 5 weeks that the Bears are THE GREATEST FOOTBALL TEAM OF ALL-TIME! I like where the Cardinals are going, and all, with the Leinart campaign, but the Bears defense will feast on the kid. Bears keep rolling 27-7.
Boy Genius: Boy, this game probably looked a lot better in network meetings in August than it does now, eh? If you had told me then that the Bears would give the Cards 11 in Tempe eight weeks ago, I'd have called you nuts. But now you've got Grossman on fire, an all-world D, and Matt Leinart. Shake well before opening, lather, rinse, repeat. I can't see the Cards keeping Alex Brown and Tommie Harris out of the backfield, I can't see Edge going for more than 50 yards on the ground, and I can't see Arizona hanging 17 points. Chicago moves another step towards immortality, 31-10.

Lock of the Week

Boy Genius: So who's your LOCK OF THE WEEK?
CJ: There's plenty to choose from this week, but I gotta look west and pick the San Diego Chargers to cover 9.5 in San Francisco.
Boy Genius: I'll look West, but climbing them Rockies gets a bettor tired. I'll settle with Denver over Oakland by 14, and keep riding the anti-Raider train until they prove me wrong.
CJ: Can't go wrong there! Of course, with us picking, you can go very wrong. I'd advise our millions of readers to find the games we picked the same, and bet against them.
Boy Genius: Absolutely... as always, fade me immediately.
Boy Genius: Oh, and good luck.

Boy Genius: Good morning CJ. You know, I had a rough week last week and I'd like to open up with an apology and a disclaimer. The apology? To anyone who followed my picks, as I may have hit three for fourteen last week. The disclaimer? I always always advise fading me on sports bets.
CJ: We're all allowed a mulligan. And you're right, you warned them. Not that I was much better.

Buf at Chi -9.5

Boy Genius: We're going to set it right this week though, and we'll open up with one of the biggest spreads of the week - the invincible Bears against the Losman-led Buffalo Bills - Bears at home giving ten. What's your thoughts?
CJ: This is an easy one, right? The Bears are the best team in the NFC with the best defense, perhaps, in all of football. Grossman is playing like an MVP and the Bears' running game hasn't even gotten rolling. The Bills? J.P. Losman-led. I'll take Chicago 24-9.
Boy Genius: Big day for Rian Lindell (or whoever's kicking for the Bills then)? I'm with you. The Bears can shut down McGahee, and if the Bills can't set up the pass with the run, the Bears will be able to tee off on Losman all day. I think the Bears win and cover, but Grossman comes back to earth a bit. 21-10 Bears, with the Bears D getting one score.

Cle at Car -7.5

CJ: Big lines seem to be all over the place today, with the Cleveland Browns getting 7.5 in Carolina. Are the Panthers back?
Boy Genius: I couldn't possibly tell you. I can figure that with a banged up Cleveland secondary that Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson are poised for big games, but the Panthers D has been under-performing their pedigree all season so far. I hope they shake the cobwebs out, and I think they can give the Browns more trouble than the Raiders did last week. Carolina covers, 31-20.
CJ: Michael Irvin, who's a world-reknowned idiot, suggested Steve Smith is the league MVP because the Panthers are 0-2 without him and 2-0 with him. Of course, the world isn't as simple as it is in Irvin's head, but he's got a bit of a point. Carolina is a different team with Smith in there and better on both sides of the ball than the Browns. I'm not worried about the fact the line moved from -9 to -7.5, that just means it's easier to cover, Carolina 27-13.

Det at Min -6.5

Boy Genius: Irvin is a retard, but at least you're still in my good graces by agreeing with me yet again. Now, I'm sorry to have to bring the conversation to a screeching halt, but it's time to talk about the Lions. This is the time of year that Lions fans either have to start calling for the coach's head or praying openly for the first pick in the draft. We always have problems in the Metrodome and the Vikes are giving us 6.5. Do we have a shot at #1 overall? Can we run the table? Do we keep it going here?
CJ: Wow, that's a tall order. If you think the Lions have a shot at being as bad as the Raiders or Titans, you're sorely mistaken. I'm torn on this game. The Vikings started out great, but have come up short the last two weeks. In fact, they've been outscored this year overall. The Vikings do enough, but they fail to cover 24-20.
Boy Genius: I think the Lions have found their offense, and they'll find that maddening pattern of win some / lose some that has kept them picking outside the top five more often than they've deserved in recent times. I'm going Lions outright today, 31-28.

Mia at NE -10

Boy Genius: But you want to hear something funnier? I just picked up Joey Harrington in my fantasy league. He's STARTING for the Dolphins against the Pats. The line's NE -10 in Foxboro, isn't Harrington good for -16.5 at least?
Boy Genius: I can't imagine this game falling right for the Dolphins. Take it from a guy who watched Harrington's every snap for five years (or four, felt like longer). New England 27 - Miami 10.
CJ: This might be early favorite for pick of the week. The Patriots ripped up a hell of a Bengals team last weeek. They'll do the same and worse to the Dolphins, 30-7.

Stl at GB +3

CJ: It looks like the NFL was nice enough to match up the two teams our favorite teams played last week.
Boy Genius: Green Bay looked pretty bad in their loss, St. Louis barely held off a charging Lions team. Pack and Rams appear to be moving in opposite directions and Green Bay's getting three at Lambeau. What about Packer Pride?
CJ: I wonder how much Packer's fans care right now. This season is all about Favre's swan song. There's no way in hell he comes back next year. The fans actually seem willing to accept a season of lowered expectations, and the Rams will oblige. St. Louis 23-Green Bay 17.
Boy Genius: Nothing like a home dog to try and make some cash. I'm totally onboard with the Brett Favre fall from grace theory, but even an old magician still knows a few tricks. He's got enough talent to keep them in the game, and you know he doesn't want to look bad in front of his home crowd. Is it enough for a Packer win? Well, no. But could they get themselves in a shootout just like the Lions did? Absolutely. I kinda like the over (46.5) here, but can't see the Pack covering. STL 34 - GB 27.

TB at NO -6.5

CJ: The Saints came back down to earth a bit last week, but can you blame them? Who really could have been up for a game following that Monday Night game in the Superdome. And, really, it's not like the Panthers blew them out. Now the JV Bucs come to town.
Boy Genius: In a million years could you have predicted this line three weeks ago? New Orleans giving a touchdown to the Bucs? Even in the Superdome? Maybe this kid Gradkowski's got something to do with that, maybe Caddy Williams' back spasms are worse than we thought, maybe the Saints really are on a roll here. But I'm floored by this line. Have to take it with a grain of salt, and I'm thinking Gruden knows what he's doing with QBs. Play not to lose. Saints get the win, will have a hard time covering. NO 27 - TB 24.
CJ: It's about time we disagreed. Maybe you have to be down here to feel the spirit. Whatever it is, the Saints have it this year. They've outscored their opponents by 29 points in 4 games, an average of about a TD. The average goes up against a really bad Tampa Bay team. Saints win and cover, 30-10.

Ten at Ind -18

Boy Genius: Wow, an offensive explosion in the Bayou... I'll be impressed. Moving on, how bad are the Titans? Start two of the Vince Young era, and every gambler on the planet seems to think he's a three-score dog. Indy's at home and giving 18 points to Tennessee, and somehow I see this line and think it's pretty fair. Do you think Vince might actually thrive if they put him in a shootout?
CJ: Good question, I'm just not sure a game in the Dome is a good spot for him. Remember, the Colts are notorious for pumping in artificial sound and Vince had enough trouble without having a hearing problem. I think the line seems fair, just not sure I want to bet it. I could easily see it being Colts 41-Titans 17, but what if the Colts don't get that last TD? If you're betting it, take Indy.
Boy Genius: I'm thinking 17 points is the number here. The Titans will put a couple touchdowns up, but they won't keep Manning out of the endzone. Addai will get a ton of clock-chomping carries in the second half, and this will be a nip and tuck battle to see if there's a cover as the game winds down. Indy gets the win 34-17.
CJ: We're on the same page there, and if you're betting it, keep an eye out for Indy giving 17, the line is on the move.

Was at NYG -5.5

CJ: Now to the BIG, BIG, BIG NFC East matchup! The Skins at the Giants! [/sarcasm]
Boy Genius: This Giants/Skins line confuses me. Giants are giving 5.5 as a home favorite to the Skins, and while I think they'll get the win, this is the type of confounding line that would have me walking right by to find some easier money. Call this my DARTBOARD PLAY OF THE DAY, take the Giants and the points as they come out with a win 24-18.
CJ: I'm confused by this game all the way around. The Skins aren't nearly as good as they looked last week against the Jags, and the Giants are team turmoil, getting their bye week after a brutal loss to Seattle. None of that helps me make this pick. Something tellsme we've got a road dog that's going to pull out a win. Skins 20-Giants 17.

KC at Ari +3.5

Boy Genius: Very interesting... I hate these could-go-either-way NFC East slugfests. Let's go on to something easier. KC heads to Arizona, and is actually a road favorite giving 3.5 to the Cards. Kansas City comes off a huge shutout of an upstart Niners team that did nothing right last week, and Arizona continues to wallow in mediocrity. Huard! Leinart! It's the NFL on CBS! Christ almighty, I feel sorry for anyone in the hinterlands who has to watch this tripe on TV, but I think this is a very bettable game. Leinart couldn't ask for a softer spot (um, maybe Oakland) to make his first start, as KC's D isn't all that tough. What say you?
CJ: As Lee Corso would say... not so fast my friend! KC has the third ranked defense in all of football! Is this really a good spot? The good news is that Leinart doesn't have to play at Arrowhead. Now THAT would be a tall orrder. Either way, 3.5 isn't going to be enough. Huard won't put up 40+ again, but it won't be close, KC 33-Arizona 16.
Boy Genius: I totally agree. There's no way Leinart notches a win here, and I think even asking for a cover might be out of his reach. KC won't have to come after him, they'll get two picks and a fumble recovery out of base defensive sets. I wouldn't want to see Kurt Warner's smug I-Told-You-So face after this one. KC will win big, 27-10.

NYJ at Jax -6.5

CJ: Jacksonville is looking for a bounce back game after their disappointing play against Washington. Do they get it at home against the Jets?
Boy Genius: Jets and Jags, not exactly the glamorous national TV matchup CBS hoped for this week (we're actually getting Buffalo/Chicago here). I think the Jets are worse than they look, and the Jags a hell of a lot better than their 2-2 record indicates. Pennington faces a real pass rush today and there's no way he stays clean today. Jax will pick a couple of his wobblers, Mo-Jo-Dru lights 'em up in spot duty, and the Jags D brutalizes the Jets all day. Jags giving 6.5 at home, and they'll cover that easily. Jags 27 - Jets 13.
CJ: I always worry about any prediction that involves the Jags covering easily. They're a team that always seems to be one 4th quarter play from winning or losing. If this were in New York, I might suggest the Jets could win outright. All that said, I do think we'll have a cover here. Jax 20-Jets 13.

Oak at SF -3.5

Boy Genius: Speaking of glamorous national TV matchups, Oakland heads across the bay to San Francisco. This should be fun, kinda like watching someone slowly drown in quicksand. Is that giant sucking sound I hear coming from the West Coast? Can the home Niners cover the three they're giving Oakland as easily as I think they can?
CJ: Tell me there's a West Coast MLB playoff game today! California should really have something else to think about. On days like this, they should schedule a USC game on Sunday. But back to the game. 3.5 points!?!?!? Haven't we established that the Raiders must get at least a TD from every team in football? Niners cover 24-10.
Boy Genius: I wouldn't take Oakland as a one TD favorite against Ohio State. That's a push. This here's my LOCK OF THE DAY, and I'll stand by picking against Oakland until Andrew Walter magically turns into Kenny Stabler. Niners win 17-10. I'll let you set the stage for your boys, have at it.

Dal at Phi -1.5

CJ: Well, if you haven't heard, there's a game in Philly this week. I'm not sure it's been mentioned on any of them sports shows this week. Dallas comes to town, and, apparently, there's some subplot involving a wide receiver? Care to fill me in?
Boy Genius: Supposedly there's some author of children's books who's about to be pelted by 9 volt batteries.
CJ: The line is just 1.5. That suggests that if the game were played somewhere else, the Cowboys would be favored instead. I can't be trusted to be impartial on this game, but the Eagles will be the better team on the field today. It won't be a blowout, but Philly will be in control. Your final: Philly 24-Dallas 20.
Boy Genius: Hmm... So many other lines to play on this one, why do we care about point spreads and over/unders? What's the line on the league-mandated network delay on the profanity dump button? Over/under on the number of prescription pill bottles (filled with batteries, naturally) that land within three feet of TO on the sideline? I love the pick 'em nature of this one, and every fiber of my being says to pick the Eagles to cover. Naturally, I'm going with the Cowboys then. I'll take Dallas to win outright 24-20, with TO actually landing one of those TDs and breaking into tears in the post-game press conference.
CJ: The subplots should be fun, never underestimate the wit and ferocity of an Eagles crowd.

Pit at SD -3

CJ: There's a pretty good game on Sunday night, too, Pittsburgh getting 3 in San Diego.
Boy Genius: This one has a lot of potential to be the best game on today's card. Gotta like the matchups here. Roethlisberger vs. Rivers, Merriman vs. Polamalu, Gates vs. Miller. I'll be watching. Am I on the right track to think this line is wrong?
CJ: Are you suggesting the Steelers should be favored on the road? Or that the Chargers aren't giving enough?
Boy Genius: Chargers aren't giving enough. This is probably the best team in the league, the Steelers are riding on reputation, and I smell a statement game brewing. Rivers has a monster game and San Diego wins 27-13.
CJ: Good, I was worried you were completely off this game. The Steelers reputation has affected every line this year. San Diego is the superior team and LT, as usual, will be the best player on the field. Rotheliesberger hasn't been the same since his wreck, and he doesn't get healthy this week. San Diego 30-10.

Bal at Den -4

Boy Genius: Last one is the Monday night tilt with Baltimore heading in to Denver. Overrated versus Underrated. Denver's a four point favorite, which sounds like a fair price to me. Do you think Plummer puts the Denver offense back on the rails?
CJ: Against Ray Lewis and company? Not a chance. The ESPN crew shatters the O/U on number of shots of Jay Cutler standing on the sidelines after Plummer mistakes. Baltimore is my second road dog pick of the week, winning 20-9.
Boy Genius: Hmm... Yeah, we're going opposite directions on this one too. I think Baltimore's got a lot of momentum, but Denver's got something to prove. Denver always plays well in the spotlight, and I think Denver gets the win, if not the cover, in an awfully close game - 24-23 Broncos.

Locks of the week
Boy Genius: So who's your lock of the week?
CJ: There are a couple of choices out there. I'm going to stick with my gut reaction to the schedule and say New England giving 10 to the Joey Harrington-led Dolphins.
Boy Genius: You're way off. It's Oakland only getting 3.5 from San Fran. They'd need two TDs for me to feel comfortable giving them a chance to cover. Niners Niners Niners.
CJ: Can't argue with that.
Boy Genius: By the way? I couldn't do worse than I did last week, so I'm figuring on at least .500 on my picks this week.
Boy Genius: It's just up to you to figure out where I'm wrong, and good luck with that.
CJ: I'll refrain from actually betting our picks this week to give us a better chance of winning. Good luck at the windows!
Boy Genius: Fade me immediately, and good luck!

Ari at Atl -7
CJ: Okay, it's week four. We should have a good idea of how good these teams really are. Let's start with Arizona at Atlanta, and the Falcons are giving 7.
Boy Genius: I'm not sure if seven seems like a lot or a little given how pissed off the Falcons have to be coming out flat last Monday.
CJ: I wonder what team wouldn't have looked flat in that atmosphere.
Boy Genius: I'm thinking a lot. They're still without John Abraham causing havoc for Kurt Warner, and while I don't think the Cards will win, I'm all about the cover here. The Falcons aren't that good and Arizona's not that bad.
Boy Genius: Mediocre versus just a notch above.
CJ: Here's the big problem for the Cardinals. Kurt Warner can't help but be looking over his shoulder wondering if the next mistake will be the last he'll make as a starter. Atlanta is still a team that rushed for more yards in two weeks than anyone else did in three. However, I'm with you. Seven points is too much
CJ: Atlanta 23, Arizona 17.
Boy Genius: I'll back you on that, Atlanta 21, Arizona 17 was my pick, but we're just splitting hairs.

Dal at Ten +10
Boy Genius: Next up is Dallas rolling into Tennessee with the hugest story of the week in tow: Vince Young starts for Kerry Collins.
Boy Genius: Oh wait, not the biggest storyline here, but TO starts and looks like the Titans are giving ten. What's up with that?
CJ: Strange. Has there ever been a more disruptive force since Barrett Robbins disappeared on Super Bowl weekend?
Boy Genius: Tom Jackson on ESPN just said, "I'm not a Cowboy, and I was distracted." I think TO thrives on this stuff and has a monster day - over eight catches and at least two TDs.
Boy Genius: And if you think they won't try and get after Vinny Heisman, you're nuts. Ten seems like the right number, but I got Dallas covering here.
CJ: Yeah, this is just the kind of game that T.O. busts out a big one. The Cowboys are lucky they get to play the Titans, one of the worst three teams in football. Their defense is terrible, and the fast Cowboys D gets to feast on a rookie starting his first game
CJ: Dallas 27, Tennessee 13
Boy Genius: That's what I was going to say. By the way, I know Young didn't win the Heisman, but Reggie Bush took money in college, so I'm giving it to him post-mortem here.
CJ: Ah, skipped right over the Heisman reference... nice!

Ind at NYJ +8
Boy Genius: Anyway, the gods of arcane football rules are smiling on me with the Indy / New York Jets matchup. Indy's giving 8.5, and due to league rules the game must run unopposed in NYC markets - meaning I get Rams/Lions at 4PM.
CJ: Good for you... bad for the other 5 million people in the greater New York area.
Boy Genius: Hey now...
Boy Genius: I'm torn on this Indy/Jets matchup
Boy Genius: On one hand, Indy is 7-1-1 as a road favorite over the last couple of years...
Boy Genius: ...on the other hand, Hammerin' Hank gave me that stat and picked the Colts. Does that mean I'm supposed to fade him?
CJ: Ha! I wonder how Hank's doing this year. I don't think I ever saw him pick the right horse in a race. Then again... after yesterday, I shouldn't criticize anyone's horse picks.
Boy Genius: Yeah, let's not talk about that travesty. Can Pennington keep the Jets close? I don't think they have a running game, but neither do the Colts. Is this a recipe for a high scoring game?
CJ: It is, the over is a safe bet, as it usually is when the Colts are playing anyone other than Jacksonville, New England and Baltimore. The Jets are better than people thought they'd be, but that just means they'll keep it close in the first half.
Boy Genius: I like the over (47) too, and I actually like the Jets to cover - Indy 31 - NYJ 24.
CJ: We're on the same page today. I've actually bet this game and I have Indy 37, Jets 20.

Mia at Hou +3.5
CJ: Next up, GAME OF THE WEEK! Why this isn't a mandatory national game, I'll never know. It's Miami at Houston and the Texans are getting 3.5.
CJ: Here's my problem picking this game... don't the Texans have to win a game eventually?
Boy Genius: Like there's some unwritten rule in the NFL rulebook that mandates this? Hell's no. But they will win a game at some point... just not today. Miami needs a big game, I think they take the reins off Culpepper and he throws for yards by the bucket.
CJ: Did you draft Culpepper in any fantasy leagues?
Boy Genius: Sigh... yes.
CJ: Yeah, me too.
Boy Genius: And he's starting today for me, so I'm clearly just projecting.
CJ: Yeah, me too.
Boy Genius: But Miami comes alive today. The Texans are the tonic for what ails you. Miami 29 Houston 17. Easy cover.
Boy Genius: I'd play this one all day long for Miami.
CJ: Well, it's about time we disagree. The Dolphins aren't nearly as good as people hoped. The Texans are at home and I think their running game is a little better this week now that Samkon Gado has a few weeks under his belt.
CJ: I'm picking Houston 24, Miami 21.
Boy Genius: Well, you can't always be correct. Save your money for a sure thing.

Min at Buf -1
Boy Genius: Maybe that's Minnesota versus Buffalo? Minny gets in to Buffalo in a near pick'em situation with the Bills actually favored by a point. Am I seeing this right? Is there actually a belief that JP Losman can will his team to victory?
CJ: I was more shocked by this line than any other this week. Is this a statement on Minnesota's ability to play outside a dome?
Boy Genius: It's OCTOBER. This isn't frozen tundra weather. This is purely a statement that the Bills' defense is playoff caliber, which I believe. I think Minnesota's vulnerable here, but vulnerable to a loss?
Boy Genius: Okay, I'm onboard. Buffalo 17 - Minnesota 13.
Boy Genius: It's not an upset if the line's pointing you that way.
CJ: Losman excels at quarterback. Well... excels at losing close games. Not exactly a skill you want. Minnesota 19, Buffalo 13.

NOS at Car -7
CJ: Okay, now a game that features an undefeated team and a team in need of win, only it's the introduction to the opposite sketches. Saints are 3-0 and the Panters are 1-2. Here, the 3-0 road team is getting 7 points.
Boy Genius: This is an absolutely astonishing line. Are we supposed to believe preseason projections on Carolina or recent past performance? And re-read that same sentence in regards to New Orleans and you can tell I've got more questions than answers.
CJ: Right... how long will wildly inaccurate preseason predictions afftect actual betting patterns? This has to be a sucker line. Except for one thing. Why can't the Panthers win by a touchdown? Great defense. Solid running game. Good QB. And Steve Smith should be healthier.
Boy Genius: Plus, don't underestimate the emotional letdown angle. Saints won big last week, and have a short week to prepare for a tougher game on the road. I see them coming out flat. Panthers 31 Saints 10. Huge statement win for Carolina.
CJ: Carolina 23, Saints 14. But the bettors will be sweating the final drive of this game.

SDG at Bal +1
Boy Genius: That brings us to today's marquee game - a matchup of undefeateds. San Diego goes to Baltimore, with the hometown Ravens getting a full point on the Chargers. #1 vs #2 defenses. So why don't I see this one being close?
CJ: Ah... you're leaving me to decide which side gets the blowout. IF it's a blowout... and I say IF... the blowout would go the Chargers way.
Boy Genius: Ding ding ding... Philip Rivers is the real deal and we'll see that today. I love the Chargers in this spot and think they win by two scores - 20-10.
CJ: IF it was going to be a blowout, I'd be on your side. It won't. Philip Rivers may be the real deal, but he's never seen anything like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The Ravens defense over the past decade has been as good as any in history.
CJ: Ravens 17, Chargers 16.

SFO at KCC -7
CJ: San Francisco is at Kansas City and the Chiefs are giving 7 points. Who is QBing for the Chiefs these days that they can give anyone 7 points?
Boy Genius: Well, who's going to be toting the rock for the Niners? Does this have any ability to be anything other than a slugfest? The seven points baffles me too, I can't see the Niners doing anything but keeping this close and both teams will keep the clock alive all game. I'm going full dog upset here - SF 17 KC 13
CJ: I'm also picking the dog outright, although I'm likely underestimating how much losing Vernon Davis will hurt the Niners offense. He was a great outlet for Alex Smith. Former Penn State QB Michael Robinson will make plays, though. San Fran 27, Kansas City 17.

Det at StL -5.5
Boy Genius: Can we talk about my Lions now? We get to save your Eagles for last, right?
CJ: Sure, go ahead...
Boy Genius: I'm going to ignore the "triumphant return of Mike Martz" angle and focus on who really matters here...
Boy Genius: Mike Freaking Furrey.
CJ: Well, um... that's bold.
Boy Genius: The Lions leading receiver comes back after two years in the St. Louis DEFENSIVE backfield with something to prove. If you think the little white guy ain't carrying a grudge, you're way off. Lions on the road are getting 5.5.
CJ: I tried to find ways to pick the Lions here. I actually like Jon Kitna, but the offense hasn't seemed to take to Martz system... yet. Will this be the week?
Boy Genius: The offense has actually taken well to the system - they just keep putting themselves into 3rd and 31 situations with dumbass penalties.
Boy Genius: At some point they're going to hang 40 points. The Rams defense will make sure it's not this week, but I like the Lions to at least cover - Rams 30 Lions 27.
CJ: This is another game I have coming down to who gets the ball last. If it's the Lions, they very well may beat the spread. However, I'm going with the home favorite to cover, Rams 21, Lions 10.
Boy Genius: We'll do better than 10 points.
CJ: And that's why I'm not putting my OWN money on that game!

Cle at Oak +1
CJ: Let's try Cleveland at Oakland and marvel over the fact the Raiders are getting just 1 point now.
Boy Genius: This line is stupid. The Raiders should be giving at least a TD to any team in the league. Hell, I'd only install them at -10 against Ohio State for chrissakes. They're bad. Real bad.
CJ: What the linesmakers are saying is that there's about a 50% chance that the Raiders beat the Browns. Has their been any indication that that's possible? Do they not understand that the only reason the Ra